The Detroit Lions host the Seattle Seahawks tonight at Ford Field.
Seattle has gone a perfect 3-0 to begin the year but my Seahawks vs. Lions predictions expect that unbeaten streak to end in Week 4. Here are my best free NFL picks for Monday Night Football on September 30.
Seahawks vs Lions MNF prediction
My best betLions -3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
When it comes right down to it, the Seattle Seahawks aren’t as good as their 3-0 record would suggest. Likewise, the Detroit Lions aren’t as bad as they’ve looked at times this year, and they’re still 2-1.
The Seahawks certainly aren’t as dominant on defense as the stats indicate. They’ve benefitted from playing against a trio of terrible quarterbacks, taking advantage of Bo Nix in his pro debut, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. Two of those three games came at home and the one away contest took place in New England where the Pats ran all over them.
Now they travel to Detroit, to face a Lions squad that leads the NFL in rush success rate. Jared Goff and the Lions aerial attack have looked a bit out of sync to start this season — but with multiple weapons, a strong offensive line, and an excellent play-caller, they’ll find their rhythm soon.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have struggled to run the ball (24th in rush EPA) and have relied on their aerial attack (13th in dropback EPA). However, they rank just 29th in the league in pass blocking per PFF while the Lions are third in the NFL in pass rush grade (81.3).
The Lions’ defense should be able to do enough to disrupt Geno Smith for their offense to pull away.
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Seahawks vs Lions MNF same-game parlay
Lions -3.5Over 46.5Geno Smith 250+ passing yards
+451 at FanDuel
Running back Kenneth Walker III isn’t at full strength and the Seahawks won’t want to pound the ball into a Lions D that ranks third in the league in rush EPA. Expect Seattle to rely on its aerial attack and Geno Smith to target his talented wideouts against a vulnerable Detroit secondary.
Despite a positive game script last week, Smith threw for 289 yards and he racked up a whopping 44 pass attempts for 327 yards in Week 2 against the Pats. He also completed 32-of-41 passes for 328 yards when Seattle upset Detroit at Ford Field last year.
These teams combined for 68 points in that previous meeting and have almost identical lineups this time around. This total looks too low when you consider that Seattle’s defense will regress now that it’s facing a competent QB — especially with multiple injuries in the front seven.
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Seahawks vs Lions odds
Seahawks vs Lions live odds
Seahawks vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Seattle +4.5 | Detroit -4.5
- Moneyline: Seattle +180 | Detroit -220
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Seahawks vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Seahawks, slimming their line from +4.5 to +3.5.
- The lookahead total was at 48.5, but after the Lions played in another low-scoring game in Week 3, the O/U reopened at 47 before ticking down to 46.5.
- Although the Seahawks are 3-0 SU, their latest 24-3 win against the Dolphins marked the first time this year that they covered the spread.
- The Lions beat the Cardinals 20-13 last week to improve to 2-1 SU and ATS, while the Under has cashed in all three of their games.
