After winning 23 games the past two seasons — and suffering two early postseason exits — oddsmakers are drawing a line in the sand when it comes to the Tennessee Titans in 2022. And that line is a 9.5 win total.
On one side of the line, we have the best running back in the game and a solid stop unit anchored to a rising star on the defensive line. On the other, an aging quarterback without a No. 1 receiver playing against a schedule that is stouter than you think.
It’s time to face the music with our Tennessee Titans 2022 betting preview.
Tennessee Titans futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +3,000 |
| To win conference | +1,500 |
| To win division | +155 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 9.5 (Under -140) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -120 / No +100 |
Best futures bet: Under 9.5 (-140)
Has the Titans’ window to glory slammed shut in 2022? Depending on which book you bet at, Tennessee is headed for either nine or 11 wins, according to the look-ahead lines. That’s a significant difference, considering 11 would likely punch a ticket to the postseason, and nine would leave Tennessee behind the Colts in the AFC South (Indianapolis’ win total is 10).
The Titans are a worse team than they were last year when they stunned everyone en route to a 12-5 record and the AFC’s top seed. They continued to win close games, going 6-2 straight up (4-4 ATS) in contests decided by eight points or less, but face an improved division and ranked out No. 5 in my QB strength of schedule — vs. 24th in standard SOS.
So much of the Titans’ success is tethered to Derrick Henry and his health. He takes pressure off the passing game, keeps defenses honest, is a first-down factory, and allows Tennessee to set the tempo and dominate time of possession, making the defense look even better as a result.
But if missing nine games due to a broken foot in 2021 is a precursor to more injury issues, the Titans will be hard pressed to pass this 9.5-win total. And even with Henry healthy, double-digit wins might be a stretch.
Tennessee Titans betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
The Titans almost did a 180 on defense in 2021, going from 28th in EPA per play allowed in 2020 to No. 10 last year. Much of that improvement is due to DL Jeffery Simmons’ emergence as the most disruptive force in the AFC. The defensive line was able to collect 43 sacks and post a pressure rate of 24% while blitzing fewer than all but five other teams.
Tennessee is now in Year 2 fully under defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and is hoping the see improved play from the linebackers and secondary after 2021 ravaged the stop unit with injuries. The Titans did get burned by the big play, however, allowing 60 passes of 20 yards or more. The 2022 sked is ripe with rifle-armed QBs, so this pass rush needs to keep the pressure coming.
What will lose bets: Tanking Tannehill
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill may want to ban the playing of the Queen+David Bowie banger “Under Pressure” from the locker room, because 2022 is coming at the veteran from all angles.
Tannehill’s contract opens the door for the team to trade or cut him in 2023 without taking a cap hit, making 2022 a make-or-break year for the 34-year-old. On top of that, Tennessee drafted his potential replacement in second-round selection Malik Willis, who Tannehill refuses to mentor. Willis is an exciting prospect who will pique the interest of fans if the starter struggles.
And speaking of struggles, Tannehill regressed in 2021. Sure, his receiving corps was the walking dead, and losing Henry midway through the year allowed defenses to focus on the pass, but it was also Year 1 without former OC Arthur Smith, who really brought out the best in Tannehill.
Now, the receiving corps is even worse with A.J. Brown traded, and Tannehill’s problems throwing under pressure could be compounded by a series of rival defenses who love to kill QBs (Bills, Raiders, Commanders, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Cowboys).
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Tennessee Titans game-by-game odds
There may not be a more divisive team than the Titans when it comes to the look-ahead lines. Early spreads from the spring have Tennessee a favorite in seven games with four other contests pegged as pick’ems (projected nine wins). Other shops are putting more faith in the Titans, making them favorites in 11 outings.
Due to life in the AFC South and drawing the NFC East in non-conference play, Tennessee has a standard strength of schedule ranked out just 24th in 2022 (based on last season’s results). However, my 2022 QB SOS pits this squad against the fifth-toughest slate of rival passers, headlined by names like Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.
| 1 | vs. N.Y. Giants | -6.5 | 44 |
| 2 | @ Buffalo | +7.5 | 51 |
| 3 | vs. Las Vegas | -2.5 | 49 |
| 4 | @ Indianapolis | +3 | 47 |
| 5 | @ Washington | -1 | 46.5 |
| 6 | BYE | ||
| 7 | vs. Indianapolis | -2 | 46.5 |
| 8 | @ Houston | -6 | 44 |
| 9 | @ Kansas City | +6.5 | 51 |
| 10 | vs. Denver | -1.5 | 45 |
| 11 | @ Green Bay | +5.5 | 48 |
| 12 | vs. Cincinnati | -1 | 47 |
| 13 | @ Philadelphia | +1.5 | 45 |
| 14 | vs. Jacksonville | -6.5 | 46.5 |
| 15 | @ L.A. Chargers | +4.5 | 49 |
| 16 | vs. Houston | -9.5 | 43 |
| 17 | vs. Dallas | -1.5 | 48 |
| 18 | @ Jacksonville | -3 | 45.5 |
Tennessee Titans pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The only reason I didn’t make a huge play on the Titans’ Under is the fact that Vrabel has gotten the most out of subpar talent in the past with this team. Eventually, I think the Titans’ lack of talent has to catch up with them. This is a bottom tier pass catching group and bottom third of the league offensive line led by an average quarterback.
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